Economic Strength Bolsters Market Upturn

As the stock market continues to rise, leadership is in flux. The first half of the year echoed 2023 with technology stocks leading the charge. However, by mid-summer, small-cap stocks, once considered obsolete, made a remarkable comeback, albeit briefly. In early August, a weaker-than-expected U.S. jobs report rekindled fears of a recession, prompting investors to seek refuge in low-beta, defensive stocks.

By September, with economic indicators showing increased strength, the focus shifted to cyclical stocks sensitive to economic conditions. This trend has accelerated post-election, fueled by hopes for tax cuts, deregulation, and a resurgence in American manufacturing. Given the potential for robust growth and the return of manufacturing activities, the dominance of cyclical stocks could extend into 2025.

From Recession to Expansion

The recent shift towards cyclical stocks has been set against a backdrop of improving economic expectations. Investors, like economists, have come to recognize the remarkable resilience of the U.S. economy. Bloomberg reports that the consensus forecast for 2024 real GDP is now 2.7%, up from 1.2% in January and just above 2% as recently as August.

As per recent trends, the upward revision in estimates has been driven by the enduring strength of the U.S. consumer. Bloomberg's consensus estimate for 2024 real consumer spending was 2.6% in November, nearly double the figure at the beginning of the year.

While most economists anticipate a slight slowdown in growth for 2025, even these estimates are improving. The consensus forecast for trend growth is around 2.1%, a significant increase from the August low of 1.7%. This optimism is supported by ongoing labor market strength and signs of recovery in the manufacturing sector. In November, the ISM Manufacturing New Orders index rose to 50.4, its highest level since early spring.

Value in Cyclicals

In addition to a promising growth outlook, another argument for cyclical stocks is their relative affordability. It's important to note that, with the S&P 500 Index trading at 22x next year's earnings, there are few absolute steals, except in the energy sector. However, compared to the technology sector and related companies, cyclical stocks appear more reasonable. Financials and Industrials are trading near their 10-year average (refer to Chart 1). While the consumer discretionary sector trades at a premium relative to its historical valuation, much of this is due to internet retail and electric vehicle (EV) companies. Excluding these two sectors, which have a significant influence in the sector index, valuations are more reasonable.

Chart 1

Global Equity Valuation by Sector

Source: LSEG Datastream, MSCI, and BlackRock Investment Institute. Nov 21, 2024.

Notes: The bars represent the current 12-month forward P/E ratios of MSCI sector indexes. The dots represent the 10-year average for each sector. P/E ratios are based on I/B/E/S earnings estimates for the next 12 months.

Cyclical with a Focus on Quality

Heading into 2025, I would advocate for an overweight position in cyclicals, especially in financials, aerospace, and select consumer discretionary stocks. There is also potential for some cyclical segments of technology, including certain semiconductor companies. One note of caution: maintain a focus on quality. This means prioritizing companies with high profit margins, a track record of consistent earnings, and low debt over more speculative players. While the economy is expected to continue its steady progress, the current low volatility environment is unlikely to persist indefinitely. Investing in higher-quality names will help manage risk when the current enthusiasm wanes and volatility returns.